The public auction record overstates art returns and understates risk — in a known direction, by documented amounts. We statistically correct it, and model sell-through risk, guarantee exposure, and comparable sales so a specialist can price the decision in front of them. Uncertainty is stated, not buried. Validated out-of-sample — including the lots that failed to sell.
Request access ↓One work, read before the sale. Enter a work coming to auction and receive a brief on how likely it is to sell, how its estimate sits against the artist’s record, whether a usual guarantee would be covered, and a likely price range. The models below are what power it.
See an example and request access →| Cy Twombly — Untitled (Bacchus) | Clearing | clears 68% · +/-1.5pp | calibrated | |
| Ed Ruscha — Standard Station | Guarantee Pricing | 90% band $1.2 - 2.6M | nominal 90% | |
| Gerhard Richter — A.B. Courbet | Liquidity-at-Risk | artist clearing rate 81% | measured over offered | |
| Diversified book — 30 lots | Book PML | 90% book band 0.51 - 1.69x | failure-complete |
Illustrative outputs · intervals drawn as stated · live surfaces are invite-only during the pilot
Built for the people who have to put a number in writing — lenders, guarantors, advisors, appraisers, and underwriters — when the raw auction record isn’t evidence enough.