The public auction record overstates art returns and understates risk — in a known direction, by documented amounts. We statistically correct it, and score sell-through risk, guarantee exposure, and comparable sales against a hard test: does the model beat what counting alone already gives you? Uncertainty is stated, not buried. Validated out-of-sample — including the lots that failed to sell.
Request access ↓| Cy Twombly — Untitled (Bacchus) | Clearing | clears 68% · +/-1.5pp | calibrated | |
| Ed Ruscha — Standard Station | Guarantee Pricing | 90% band $1.2 - 2.6M | nominal 90% | |
| Gerhard Richter — A.B. Courbet | Liquidity-at-Risk | artist clearing rate 81% | measured over offered | |
| Diversified book — 30 lots | Book PML | 90% book band 0.51 - 1.69x | failure-complete |
Illustrative outputs · intervals drawn as stated · live surfaces are invite-only during the pilot
Built for the people who have to put a number in writing — lenders, guarantors, advisors, appraisers, and underwriters — when the raw auction record isn’t evidence enough.